自2009 六月下旬,以每股$12.62价格抛出手头上的最后 1000 新航(SIA)股之后,我再也没有勇气将它买进了。在这不算长也不算短的11年里,一直以旁观看望的心态关注新航的动向。心里总是觉得以公司运作模式,股东很难获利。所以,一直没有行动再买进股票。也因如此,非常侥幸的逃过了现在新航面临的灾难。 其实,在冠病疫情(Covid-19)发生之前的七八年里, 新航的股票价格一直处在 狭小范围徘徊,股价为$10 到 $12 价位,变动不大。如果长期保留这只股票,股东只能够从年底分红受益,根本就不能够在价差上获利。今年初所发生的冠病疫情,恰恰的把正在高处慢步行走的新航股拉下马,难以翻身。 新航运作概况 为什么疫情带给新航严重挫伤,当然其中答案是因为情蔓延全世界,载客量锐减。在最糟糕时期新航裁减了96% 的航班。新航最近引进最昂贵的A380 客机在不得已的情况下长期收藏在澳大利亚沙漠。当然载客量锐减只是新航的其中问题,当我抛售我手头上的最后 1000 股时,根本就不会料到十年后这种疫情会爆发,蔓延世界各角落。其实当时我觉得新航运作的成本极高,不论是以固定开支或是可变动成本来检讨都不会利于投资者。为什么新航在全球金融风暴后的十年里能够取得正面盈利,是因为全球经济兴旺。当时,新航的收益远超于成本,把极高的开支遮盖。当然我不敢说极高的开支是不必要的花费,我只能说可能是这行业领域的恶性竞争所造成的。 在很多方面我觉得新航没有占有绝大优势,加上当时廉价航班崛起严重打伤新航廉价部分, 所以新航只能够在豪华阶级部分取得一席地位。虽然这些廉价航班已纷纷的被一些国航收购,但那几年的行动已经带给一些国航不必要的经济影响。 更何况,这豪华阶级的竞争对手也不少,光是在四到八小时飞行时间的半径范围就有西边的中东阿联酋航班 (Emirates)及 卡达尔航班 (Qatar Airways),北部的国泰航空及中国大陆一些航班,在南部有澳大利亚航班如 Qantas 及Ansett 等。这些航班恰恰的把新航夹在中间。为了保持优势新航不得不购买更能长途飞行而没必要在中途降落添油或是载客量比较大的客机。显然的,这些客机相对来说都比较昂贵。再者,新航运作模式是永久保存机身寿命年幼,所以新航不得不一直购买新客机取代已经运作多年的飞机。也因如此,新航现金流动不可说很健全。在过去的五个年度,其中四年是负数。可惜,很多人没有发现这问题,可能是被正数的盈利掩盖了。 油价 最近也了解到新航一向来以期货合约采购航油。因为这方式具有确定性,能够更正确更完善的计算到运作成本,可能是在全球金融风暴后到2016 年,油价一直不断上升,在无可奈何情况之下应用买期货方式,采购航油来满足需求。据知,一些期货合约还长达五年之久。没有错,从使用者的观点检讨,当油价攀高时,签署期货合同稳定成本是上策,但如果油价暴跌而走下坡,还需要应用期货方式采购航油吗?新航不是一家刚入行的公司,它因该有绝对的经验在什么时候收手转于购买现货,但新航似乎照旧应用期货方式采购航油。于我非常原始的计算,从源油提炼成航油 ,炼油费幅度应该是在US$15 到 US$20之内。如果原油现货价格是每桶US$40/-, 航油市价因该是在每桶US$55 到 US$60 左右。 但如果新航在高峰期敲定了油价,那它一定亏大钱。 其实在过去的十来几年里,美国在挖取页岩油的科技有显著的进步,挖取成本逐渐下降,原油价如上升到大约一桶 US$55 时, 美国的页岩油业将会开始行动,大量生产,形成原油价格顶线,所以我估计航油在短期应该不会超越美金一桶70元。如果新航敲定的价格都处在每桶70美元或以上,那今年新航的航油期货还是会亏钱。 现况 因为2020 冠病疫情发生,全球的航空业都停顿下来。国际航空组织 (IATA)估计今年全球航空业总亏损额可高达840亿美元。当然新航的处境也不例外。自从它开始营业以来,今年新航第一次蒙受全年亏损。而且,过去2到3年前从北美的波音及法国的空客所订购的新客机, 都预定在今年交付。遇到这疫情的打击,真是雪上加霜。刚交付的新客机不能派上用场,实在是英雄无用武之地。 也因为疫情的打击,新航不得不向股东注资。 在今年六月配发供股及债券。股东注资总额高达新币88亿元。这次所发行的供股及债券已经把现有的股东们紧紧套住,动弹不得。至今,新航已经消耗了一半的金额。如果局势还不好转,我估计新航将会启用明年年中可配发的新元62亿的债券权。 未来前景 整体而言,我觉得航空业的未来几年前景不乐观,新航的枢纽策略也可能永远被打断。其实,一些科技的发展也无形中影响到航空旅业,视频的功能,高密度的手机/相机能够把电话会议逼真化,取代了许多商务的旅程。况且,大型客机如A380,运作费用较高,如果载客量不多,启用不划算。我估计未来A380飞行趟次有可能会减少。如想把较旧款的飞机专卖出去,有可能没有买家。所以以后商业报表减损幅度会较大。其实,以现在的载客不多的情况,较小型的飞机,如A350,Continue Reading

Since the last post on scrip dividends, there is still a need to broach on the subject further. In fact, taking scrip dividends appeared to have more downside compare to taking cash dividends during a recessionary period like now. Many of us are aware that taking scrip dividends in lieuContinue Reading

[Abstract – The Covid-19 pandemic has pushed many companies in an effort to conserve cash to maintain liquidity. Consequently, many companies, have introduced the scrip dividend scheme in hope to beef up company cash hoards to cushion this trying time. In particular, apart from 40% cut in dividends, all theContinue Reading

Since hitting close to $30 per share for a relatively short period of time in early 2018, the share price of Venture Corporation has been hovering below $20 and to even below $16 during the Covid-19 pandemic lock-down period. For most of the trading days in year 2018, the wholeContinue Reading

Ask an American during the 90s whether they know Singapore Airlines (SIA), you are likely to get a confirmed yes. But when you ask him where Singapore was, you may not get a very clear answer. That spoke volumes about how SIA as a national carrier punched above its weightContinue Reading

On 8 June 2020, Sembcorp Industries (SCI) and its subsidiary, Sembcorp Marine (SCM), jointly announced a proposal of $2.1 billion renounceable rights issue for SCM. This involves a 5:1 rights issue to existing SCM shareholders as well as Temasek Holding (TH)’s upfront billion cash injection of $0.6 billion. Following theContinue Reading

10th to 14th March 2020: The market was very bad. The STI tanks around 16% (2960.93 to 2493.95) and was still on the way down. The Dow Jones also had a bad outing. The worst performing stocks on the SGX sank as much as 50%. 15 May 2020: It’s aContinue Reading

On the requests of students concerning the recent SIA rights and MCB R, I have made a video to explain the technicalities of the rights issue. The last time I had SIA shares was more than 10 year ago While I have not been analyzing about SIA stock in particular,Continue Reading

Since the video on Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) was made in the week immediately after the Chinese New Year (CNY), signs are now beginning to surface of the near-term situations of transport companies. ComfortDelgro (CDG), which has been facing a dwindling operating taxi fleet from more than 16,000 in the beginningContinue Reading